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The gravest projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by scientists, including a scorching 4C increase in average temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level. An alternative projection foresees a plunge of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset food production and energy demand.

Possible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, a number of which are linked to climate tipping points, are considered as unlikely but credible. The team stated that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in planning that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have mapped are not forecasts, but they are credible," said the lead researcher who oversaw the research. "The nation has been planning lacking the tools to assess worst-case scenarios. We've now provided decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Projections

Another collection of dire projections details the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in some months by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be 300% of typical amounts.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be implemented to address climate change and how the Earth's systems will respond. This research was likened to security threat evaluations or stress tests for financial systems.

Key Possibility Highlights

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action fails or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its enormous store of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and becoming unstable due to climate change. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water resources would be completely altered," explained the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This unexpected result occurs because tiny specks from industrial activity scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Extreme

The severe models could be applied to guide the construction of major projects, including expanded cities, energy plants and flood defences. Knowledge about these future hazards could also accelerate the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The study created the worst-case scenarios using a combination of past data and records, climate models and established principles. The possibilities omit international cascading effects including the agricultural collapse and geopolitical instability.

The project was requested as part of a official risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have stated that insufficient focus was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the threats for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "inadequate" by certain experts.

A national response commented: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is ready for the consequences."