🔗 Share this article

At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe repercussions" in August should Putin persisted blocking truce discussions, the former president ultimately imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in danger. Although strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if giving Russia a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a charred region of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While keeping in position the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that constitute a key impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear path to the capital in case he eventually decide to resume the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would force the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their current large number soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the initiative sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "All extremist belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that Putin endanger his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of captured areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should we believe Russia this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "strong joint defense action" if Russia renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics vary from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a military response. Yet unlike a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to react militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not