UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.